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VALUATION SCENARIOS - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) ANALYSIS
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Using default growth rates due to calculation error: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int'

Stock: WIX
Current Price: $66.90
Shares Outstanding: 0.06B (56,107,932 shares)

Base Year FCF (FY 2024): $0.5B (from financial statements)

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BEAR CASE (Probability: 25%)
Conservative: Below-trend growth, elevated risk premium, modest recession impact

ASSUMPTIONS:
  • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 3.0%
  • Discount Rate (WACC): 12.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%

10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION:
Year     FCF ($M)        PV Factor    PV of FCF ($M) 
------------------------------------------------------------
1        $  475,807,470      0.8929 $  424,828,098
2        $  490,081,694      0.7972 $  390,690,126
3        $  504,784,145      0.7118 $  359,295,384
4        $  519,927,669      0.6355 $  330,423,433
5        $  535,525,499      0.5674 $  303,871,550
6        $  551,591,264      0.5066 $  279,453,301
7        $  568,139,002      0.4523 $  256,997,232
8        $  585,183,172      0.4039 $  236,345,669
9        $  602,738,667      0.3606 $  217,353,606
10       $  620,820,828      0.3220 $  199,887,691
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Total PV of 10-Year FCF:            $2,999,146,090

TERMINAL VALUE:
  • Year 11 FCF: $633,237,244
  • Terminal Value: $6,332,372,441
  • PV of Terminal Value: $2,038,854,450

VALUATION SUMMARY:
  • Enterprise Value: $5.0B
  • Less: Total Debt: $1.1B
  • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $0.1B
  • Equity Value: $4.0B
  • Shares Outstanding: 0.06B
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: $70.52
  • Current Price: $66.90
  • Upside/Downside: +5.4%
  • Margin of Safety: 5.1%
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BASE CASE (Probability: 50%)
Balanced: Sustainable growth trajectory, market-appropriate discount rate, realistic perpetuity assumptions

ASSUMPTIONS:
  • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 7.0%
  • Discount Rate (WACC): 10.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5%

10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION:
Year     FCF ($M)        PV Factor    PV of FCF ($M) 
------------------------------------------------------------
1        $  494,285,430      0.9091 $  449,350,391
2        $  528,885,410      0.8264 $  437,095,380
3        $  565,907,389      0.7513 $  425,174,597
4        $  605,520,906      0.6830 $  413,578,926
5        $  647,907,369      0.6209 $  402,299,501
6        $  693,260,885      0.5645 $  391,327,696
7        $  741,789,147      0.5132 $  380,655,123
8        $  793,714,388      0.4665 $  370,273,620
9        $  849,274,395      0.4241 $  360,175,248
10       $  908,723,602      0.3855 $  350,352,287
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Total PV of 10-Year FCF:            $3,980,282,770

TERMINAL VALUE:
  • Year 11 FCF: $931,441,692
  • Terminal Value: $12,419,222,565
  • PV of Terminal Value: $4,788,147,920

VALUATION SUMMARY:
  • Enterprise Value: $8.8B
  • Less: Total Debt: $1.1B
  • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $0.1B
  • Equity Value: $7.7B
  • Shares Outstanding: 0.06B
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: $137.00
  • Current Price: $66.90
  • Upside/Downside: +104.8%
  • Margin of Safety: 51.2%
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BULL CASE (Probability: 25%)
Optimistic: Strong execution, market share gains, operating leverage, sustained competitive advantages

ASSUMPTIONS:
  • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 12.0%
  • Discount Rate (WACC): 9.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0%

10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION:
Year     FCF ($M)        PV Factor    PV of FCF ($M) 
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1        $  517,382,880      0.9174 $  474,663,193
2        $  579,468,826      0.8417 $  487,727,317
3        $  649,005,085      0.7722 $  501,151,005
4        $  726,885,695      0.7084 $  514,944,152
5        $  814,111,978      0.6499 $  529,116,927
6        $  911,805,416      0.5963 $  543,679,778
7        $1,021,222,065      0.5470 $  558,643,441
8        $1,143,768,713      0.5019 $  574,018,949
9        $1,281,020,959      0.4604 $  589,817,636
10       $1,434,743,474      0.4224 $  606,051,149
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Total PV of 10-Year FCF:            $5,379,813,545

TERMINAL VALUE:
  • Year 11 FCF: $1,477,785,778
  • Terminal Value: $24,629,762,970
  • PV of Terminal Value: $10,403,878,050

VALUATION SUMMARY:
  • Enterprise Value: $15.8B
  • Less: Total Debt: $1.1B
  • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $0.1B
  • Equity Value: $14.7B
  • Shares Outstanding: 0.06B
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: $262.04
  • Current Price: $66.90
  • Upside/Downside: +291.7%
  • Margin of Safety: 74.5%
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - Intrinsic Value per Share
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How intrinsic value changes with different growth and discount rates:

Growth →           3%          5%          8%         10%         12%         15%   
WACC ↓      ------------------------------------------------------------------
   8%    $   140↑  $   167↑  $   216↑  $   256↑  $   303↑  $   386↑ 
   9%    $   116↑  $   137↑  $   177↑  $   210↑  $   247↑  $   314↑ 
  10%    $    97↑  $   116↑  $   149↑  $   176↑  $   206↑  $   262↑ 
  11%    $    84   $    99↑  $   127↑  $   150↑  $   176↑  $   223↑ 
  12%    $    73   $    86   $   110↑  $   130↑  $   152↑  $   192↑ 

Current Price: $66.90
Base FCF: $0.5B
Terminal Growth: 2.5% (constant)

Legend: ↑ = 30%+ upside  |  ↓ = 10%+ downside
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REVERSE DCF — WHAT IS THE MARKET PRICING IN?
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Using IDENTICAL assumptions as Base Case DCF:
  • WACC (Discount Rate): 10.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5%
  • Base FCF: $0.5B
  • Current Price: $66.90

  → Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate: -1.2%
  → Base Case uses: 7.0% growth → $137.00/share

  📊 Market is pricing in LOWER growth (-1.2%) than our Base Case (7.0%)
     → Potential upside if company achieves base case growth
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PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED VALUATION
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Bear Case (70.52) × 25%  = $17.63
Base Case (137.00) × 50%  = $68.50
Bull Case (262.04) × 25%  = $65.51

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Weighted Average Intrinsic Value: $151.64
Current Price: $66.90
Upside/Downside: +126.7%
Margin of Safety: 55.9%
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