XII
Detailed Valuation Scenarios
================================================================================ VALUATION SCENARIOS - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Using default growth rates due to calculation error: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int' Stock: SPOT Current Price: $506.89 Shares Outstanding: 0.21B (205,832,527 shares) Base Year FCF (FY 2025): $1.1B (from financial statements) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAR CASE (Probability: 25%) Conservative: Below-trend growth, elevated risk premium, modest recession impact ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 3.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 12.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $1,182,440,000 0.8929 $1,055,750,000 2 $1,217,913,200 0.7972 $ 970,912,946 3 $1,254,450,596 0.7118 $ 892,893,156 4 $1,292,084,114 0.6355 $ 821,142,813 5 $1,330,846,637 0.5674 $ 755,158,123 6 $1,370,772,036 0.5066 $ 694,475,774 7 $1,411,895,198 0.4523 $ 638,669,685 8 $1,454,252,053 0.4039 $ 587,348,014 9 $1,497,879,615 0.3606 $ 540,150,405 10 $1,542,816,003 0.3220 $ 496,745,462 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $7,453,246,378 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $1,573,672,324 • Terminal Value: $15,736,723,236 • PV of Terminal Value: $5,066,803,713 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $12.5B • Less: Total Debt: $2.9B • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $4.2B • Equity Value: $13.8B • Shares Outstanding: 0.21B • Intrinsic Value per Share: $67.11 • Current Price: $506.89 • Upside/Downside: -86.8% • Margin of Safety: -655.3% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BASE CASE (Probability: 50%) Balanced: Sustainable growth trajectory, market-appropriate discount rate, realistic perpetuity assumptions ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 7.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 10.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $1,228,360,000 0.9091 $1,116,690,909 2 $1,314,345,200 0.8264 $1,086,235,702 3 $1,406,349,364 0.7513 $1,056,611,092 4 $1,504,793,819 0.6830 $1,027,794,426 5 $1,610,129,387 0.6209 $ 999,763,669 6 $1,722,838,444 0.5645 $ 972,497,387 7 $1,843,437,135 0.5132 $ 945,974,731 8 $1,972,477,734 0.4665 $ 920,175,420 9 $2,110,551,176 0.4241 $ 895,079,727 10 $2,258,289,758 0.3855 $ 870,668,462 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $9,891,491,527 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $2,314,747,002 • Terminal Value: $30,863,293,362 • PV of Terminal Value: $11,899,135,645 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $21.8B • Less: Total Debt: $2.9B • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $4.2B • Equity Value: $23.1B • Shares Outstanding: 0.21B • Intrinsic Value per Share: $112.15 • Current Price: $506.89 • Upside/Downside: -77.9% • Margin of Safety: -352.0% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BULL CASE (Probability: 25%) Optimistic: Strong execution, market share gains, operating leverage, sustained competitive advantages ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 12.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 9.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $1,285,760,000 0.9174 $1,179,596,330 2 $1,440,051,200 0.8417 $1,212,062,284 3 $1,612,857,344 0.7722 $1,245,421,797 4 $1,806,400,225 0.7084 $1,279,699,461 5 $2,023,168,252 0.6499 $1,314,920,547 6 $2,265,948,443 0.5963 $1,351,111,021 7 $2,537,862,256 0.5470 $1,388,297,563 8 $2,842,405,726 0.5019 $1,426,507,587 9 $3,183,494,414 0.4604 $1,465,769,264 10 $3,565,513,743 0.4224 $1,506,111,537 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $13,369,497,391 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $3,672,479,155 • Terminal Value: $61,207,985,925 • PV of Terminal Value: $25,854,914,723 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $39.2B • Less: Total Debt: $2.9B • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $4.2B • Equity Value: $40.5B • Shares Outstanding: 0.21B • Intrinsic Value per Share: $196.85 • Current Price: $506.89 • Upside/Downside: -61.2% • Margin of Safety: -157.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - Intrinsic Value per Share ================================================================================ How intrinsic value changes with different growth and discount rates: Growth → 3% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% WACC ↓ ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8% $ 114↓ $ 133↓ $ 166↓ $ 193↓ $ 224↓ $ 281↓ 9% $ 98↓ $ 112↓ $ 140↓ $ 161↓ $ 187↓ $ 232↓ 10% $ 85↓ $ 98↓ $ 120↓ $ 138↓ $ 159↓ $ 197↓ 11% $ 76↓ $ 86↓ $ 106↓ $ 121↓ $ 138↓ $ 170↓ 12% $ 69↓ $ 78↓ $ 94↓ $ 107↓ $ 122↓ $ 149↓ Current Price: $506.89 Base FCF: $1.1B Terminal Growth: 2.5% (constant) Legend: ↑ = 30%+ upside | ↓ = 10%+ downside ================================================================================ ================================================================================ PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED VALUATION ================================================================================ Bear Case (67.11) × 25% = $16.78 Base Case (112.15) × 50% = $56.08 Bull Case (196.85) × 25% = $49.21 ======================================== Weighted Average Intrinsic Value: $122.06 Current Price: $506.89 Upside/Downside: -75.9% Margin of Safety: -315.3% ================================================================================