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VALUATION SCENARIOS - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) ANALYSIS
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Stock: BMY
Current Price: $54.28
Shares Outstanding: 2,029,312,023M

Base Year FCF (FY 2024): $15,190,000,000

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BEAR CASE (Probability: 25%)
Conservative: Below-trend growth, elevated risk premium, modest recession impact

ASSUMPTIONS:
  • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 3.0%
  • Discount Rate (WACC): 12.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%

10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION:
Year     FCF ($M)        PV Factor    PV of FCF ($M) 
------------------------------------------------------------
1        $15,645,700,000      0.8929 $13,969,375,000
2        $16,115,071,000      0.7972 $12,846,835,937
3        $16,598,523,130      0.7118 $11,814,500,907
4        $17,096,478,824      0.6355 $10,865,121,370
5        $17,609,373,189      0.5674 $9,992,031,260
6        $18,137,654,384      0.5066 $9,189,100,176
7        $18,681,784,016      0.4523 $8,450,690,341
8        $19,242,237,536      0.4039 $7,771,617,010
9        $19,819,504,662      0.3606 $7,147,112,071
10       $20,414,089,802      0.3220 $6,572,790,566
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Total PV of 10-Year FCF:            $98,619,174,637

TERMINAL VALUE:
  • Year 11 FCF: $20,822,371,598
  • Terminal Value: $208,223,715,983
  • PV of Terminal Value: $67,042,463,770

VALUATION SUMMARY:
  • Enterprise Value: $165,661,638,407
  • Shares Outstanding: 2,029,312,023M
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: $81.63
  • Current Price: $54.28
  • Upside/Downside: +50.4%
  • Margin of Safety: 33.5%
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BASE CASE (Probability: 50%)
Balanced: Sustainable growth trajectory, market-appropriate discount rate, realistic perpetuity assumptions

ASSUMPTIONS:
  • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 8.0%
  • Discount Rate (WACC): 10.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5%

10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION:
Year     FCF ($M)        PV Factor    PV of FCF ($M) 
------------------------------------------------------------
1        $16,405,200,000      0.9091 $14,913,818,182
2        $17,717,616,000      0.8264 $14,642,657,851
3        $19,135,025,280      0.7513 $14,376,427,708
4        $20,665,827,302      0.6830 $14,115,038,114
5        $22,319,093,487      0.6209 $13,858,401,057
6        $24,104,620,966      0.5645 $13,606,430,129
7        $26,032,990,643      0.5132 $13,359,040,490
8        $28,115,629,894      0.4665 $13,116,148,845
9        $30,364,880,286      0.4241 $12,877,673,411
10       $32,794,070,709      0.3855 $12,643,533,895
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Total PV of 10-Year FCF:            $137,509,169,683

TERMINAL VALUE:
  • Year 11 FCF: $33,613,922,476
  • Terminal Value: $448,185,633,017
  • PV of Terminal Value: $172,794,963,228

VALUATION SUMMARY:
  • Enterprise Value: $310,304,132,911
  • Shares Outstanding: 2,029,312,023M
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: $152.91
  • Current Price: $54.28
  • Upside/Downside: +181.7%
  • Margin of Safety: 64.5%
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BULL CASE (Probability: 25%)
Optimistic: Strong execution, market share gains, operating leverage, sustained competitive advantages

ASSUMPTIONS:
  • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 14.0%
  • Discount Rate (WACC): 9.0%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0%

10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION:
Year     FCF ($M)        PV Factor    PV of FCF ($M) 
------------------------------------------------------------
1        $17,316,600,000      0.9174 $15,886,788,991
2        $19,740,924,000      0.8417 $16,615,540,779
3        $22,504,653,360      0.7722 $17,377,721,549
4        $25,655,304,830      0.7084 $18,174,864,739
5        $29,247,047,507      0.6499 $19,008,574,131
6        $33,341,634,158      0.5963 $19,880,527,073
7        $38,009,462,940      0.5470 $20,792,477,856
8        $43,330,787,751      0.5019 $21,746,261,244
9        $49,397,098,036      0.4604 $22,743,796,163
10       $56,312,691,761      0.4224 $23,787,089,565
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Total PV of 10-Year FCF:            $196,013,642,092

TERMINAL VALUE:
  • Year 11 FCF: $58,002,072,514
  • Terminal Value: $966,701,208,572
  • PV of Terminal Value: $408,345,037,540

VALUATION SUMMARY:
  • Enterprise Value: $604,358,679,632
  • Shares Outstanding: 2,029,312,023M
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: $297.81
  • Current Price: $54.28
  • Upside/Downside: +448.7%
  • Margin of Safety: 81.8%
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - Intrinsic Value per Share
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How intrinsic value changes with different growth and discount rates:

Growth →           3%          5%          8%         10%         12%         15%   
WACC ↓      ------------------------------------------------------------------
   8%    $   145↑  $   170↑  $   214↑  $   251↑  $   293↑  $   369↑ 
   9%    $   123↑  $   143↑  $   179↑  $   208↑  $   242↑  $   303↑ 
  10%    $   106↑  $   123↑  $   153↑  $   177↑  $   205↑  $   256↑ 
  11%    $    93↑  $   108↑  $   133↑  $   154↑  $   177↑  $   220↑ 
  12%    $    84↑  $    96↑  $   118↑  $   135↑  $   156↑  $   192↑ 

Current Price: $54.28
Base FCF: $15,190,000,000M
Terminal Growth: 2.5% (constant)

Legend: ↑ = 30%+ upside  |  ↓ = 10%+ downside
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PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED VALUATION
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Bear Case (81.63) × 25%  = $20.41
Base Case (152.91) × 50%  = $76.45
Bull Case (297.81) × 25%  = $74.45

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Weighted Average Intrinsic Value: $171.31
Current Price: $54.28
Upside/Downside: +215.6%
Margin of Safety: 68.3%
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