XII
Detailed Valuation Scenarios
================================================================================ VALUATION SCENARIOS - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Stock: AN Current Price: $210.09 Shares Outstanding: 39,056,586M Base Year FCF (FY 2024): $314,700,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAR CASE (Probability: 25%) Conservative: Below-trend growth, elevated risk premium, modest recession impact ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 3.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 12.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $ 324,141,000 0.8929 $ 289,411,607 2 $ 333,865,230 0.7972 $ 266,155,317 3 $ 343,881,187 0.7118 $ 244,767,836 4 $ 354,197,623 0.6355 $ 225,098,992 5 $ 364,823,551 0.5674 $ 207,010,681 6 $ 375,768,258 0.5066 $ 190,375,894 7 $ 387,041,305 0.4523 $ 175,077,831 8 $ 398,652,545 0.4039 $ 161,009,077 9 $ 410,612,121 0.3606 $ 148,070,847 10 $ 422,930,485 0.3220 $ 136,172,297 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $2,043,150,379 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $431,389,094 • Terminal Value: $4,313,890,943 • PV of Terminal Value: $1,388,957,429 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $3,432,107,808 • Shares Outstanding: 39,056,586M • Intrinsic Value per Share: $87.88 • Current Price: $210.09 • Upside/Downside: -58.2% • Margin of Safety: -139.1% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BASE CASE (Probability: 50%) Balanced: Sustainable growth trajectory, market-appropriate discount rate, realistic perpetuity assumptions ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 8.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 10.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $ 339,876,000 0.9091 $ 308,978,182 2 $ 367,066,080 0.8264 $ 303,360,397 3 $ 396,431,366 0.7513 $ 297,844,753 4 $ 428,145,876 0.6830 $ 292,429,394 5 $ 462,397,546 0.6209 $ 287,112,496 6 $ 499,389,349 0.5645 $ 281,892,269 7 $ 539,340,497 0.5132 $ 276,766,955 8 $ 582,487,737 0.4665 $ 271,734,828 9 $ 629,086,756 0.4241 $ 266,794,195 10 $ 679,413,697 0.3855 $ 261,943,391 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $2,848,856,860 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $696,399,039 • Terminal Value: $9,285,320,521 • PV of Terminal Value: $3,579,893,017 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $6,428,749,877 • Shares Outstanding: 39,056,586M • Intrinsic Value per Share: $164.60 • Current Price: $210.09 • Upside/Downside: -21.7% • Margin of Safety: -27.6% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BULL CASE (Probability: 25%) Optimistic: Strong execution, market share gains, operating leverage, sustained competitive advantages ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 14.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 9.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $ 358,758,000 0.9174 $ 329,135,780 2 $ 408,984,120 0.8417 $ 344,233,751 3 $ 466,241,897 0.7722 $ 360,024,290 4 $ 531,515,762 0.7084 $ 376,539,166 5 $ 605,927,969 0.6499 $ 393,811,605 6 $ 690,757,885 0.5963 $ 411,876,357 7 $ 787,463,989 0.5470 $ 430,769,768 8 $ 897,708,947 0.5019 $ 450,529,849 9 $1,023,388,200 0.4604 $ 471,196,356 10 $1,166,662,548 0.4224 $ 492,810,868 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $4,060,927,792 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $1,201,662,424 • Terminal Value: $20,027,707,066 • PV of Terminal Value: $8,459,919,902 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $12,520,847,695 • Shares Outstanding: 39,056,586M • Intrinsic Value per Share: $320.58 • Current Price: $210.09 • Upside/Downside: +52.6% • Margin of Safety: 34.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - Intrinsic Value per Share ================================================================================ How intrinsic value changes with different growth and discount rates: Growth → 3% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% WACC ↓ ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8% $ 156↓ $ 183↓ $ 231 $ 270 $ 315↑ $ 397↑ 9% $ 132↓ $ 153↓ $ 192 $ 224 $ 261 $ 327↑ 10% $ 114↓ $ 132↓ $ 165↓ $ 191 $ 221 $ 275↑ 11% $ 101↓ $ 116↓ $ 143↓ $ 165↓ $ 191 $ 237 12% $ 90↓ $ 103↓ $ 127↓ $ 146↓ $ 168↓ $ 207 Current Price: $210.09 Base FCF: $314,700,000M Terminal Growth: 2.5% (constant) Legend: ↑ = 30%+ upside | ↓ = 10%+ downside ================================================================================ ================================================================================ PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED VALUATION ================================================================================ Bear Case (87.88) × 25% = $21.97 Base Case (164.60) × 50% = $82.30 Bull Case (320.58) × 25% = $80.14 ======================================== Weighted Average Intrinsic Value: $184.41 Current Price: $210.09 Upside/Downside: -12.2% Margin of Safety: -13.9% ================================================================================